Articles
Water crisis in Iran: A system dynamics approach on water, energy, food, land and climate (WEFLC) nexus
Introduction
Nexus approach has intensively been used to analyze “hyperconnected” systems i.e., systems that influence each other such as Water-Energy-Food (WEF) (Bleischwitz et al., 2018; Carmona-Moreno et al., 2019). The mutual associations among WEF systems have been elaborated in different studies and at different regional (Bakhshianlamouki et al., 2020), national (Laspidou et al., 2020; Linderhof et al., 2020), and global (Sušnik et al., 2018) scales. WEF nexus approach has several advantages. However, some studies have critiqued WEF nexus approach as it does not consider other systems that influence WEF nexus; climate change, ecosystem, and land use (Hülsmann et al., 2019; Sušnik et al., 2021; Venghaus and Dieken, 2019). Therefore, WEF nexus does not represent a real world situation so this approach outputs have a limited real world applicability and relevance and cannot be reliable for decision-making. Therefore, there has been a call to consider other systems and to improve WEF (Hülsmann et al., 2019; Laspidou et al., 2019; Sušnik et al., 2021; van den Heuvel et al., 2020; van Gevelt, 2020). Following such requirements and needs, this study tried to develop a water-energy-food-land-climate (WEFLC) model to investigate water scarcity in Iran. Although including larger number of systems in modeling water scarcity will increase the complexity of modeling procedure, this will enable decision-makers to analyze the efficiency and coordination of water-scarcity adaptation and mitigation measures across scales and institutions (Leal Filho et al., 2022). The current status of global water scarcity and the interlinked WEFLC nexus in Iran are discussed in more detail in the following sections followed by research questions.
Water scarcity is one of the major challenges of this century which threatens the sustainability of social-ecological systems worldwide (UN-Water, 2021). Water scarcity is broadly defined as a situation when a regions' water supply does not meet its water demand (Karimi et al., 2018). This indicates that water scarcity is linked with the disrupted water supply-demand balance in a region (Gunasekara et al., 2014), and thus is strongly associated with both natural and human factors (Mishra et al., 2021). Recent changes in human societies such as population growth, improved welfare, land-use change, urbanization expansion, and agricultural development, together with some natural causes, e.g. climate change, have increased pressure on freshwater resources (Liang et al., 2020; Zhu et al., 2022). These changes have widened the gap between water supply and demand, rendering the World Economic Forum to rank water crisis as the most impactful crisis worldwide (World Economic Forum, 2019, World Economic Forum, 2020). Excessive pressure on the environment increase ecosystem degradation, and reduce available water provided by ecosystems. Based on the United Nations report, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries (UN-Water, 2021), and this figure has been estimated to substantially increase by 2050 (IPCC, 2022; United Nation, 2022). Approximately 4 billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month per year, and about 500 million suffer from acute water scarcity for the whole year (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Projections have showed that the number of people in cities suffering from water scarcity would substantially increase from 955 million in 2016 to approximately 2 billion people by 2050 (He et al., 2021). It is also estimated that approximately 216 million people will be displaced as a result of water shortage by 2050 (United Nation, 2022). Conclusive evidence shows that water scarcity, if not dealt with adequately, would also hinder the achievement of almost all sustainable development goals (SDGs) (Stringer et al., 2021; Vanham et al., 2018).
During the “Anthropocene”, characterized by the devastating impacts of humans on natural ecosystems and the climate, water scarcity is increasingly spreading worldwide and becoming a common feature even in countries with the appropriate records of water supply such as European countries (Brunner et al., 2019; Garrote et al., 2018). In some regions of the world such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, water scarcity is a major challenge. The MENA region has considered the most water-stressed region worldwide, involving 12 out of 17 most water-stressed countries (Hofste et al., 2019). However, nexus approach which is essential to address water scarcity has not widely developed and practiced in countries of this region (Hoff et al., 2019). The multiplicity, complexity, and magnitude of factors that contribute to water scarcity in different countries in this region influence the most suitable adaptation policies that should be taken. In this regard, our study analyze the current and future status of water scarcity in Iran by developing a comprehensive WEFLC nexus model. The model quantifies the effects of each adaptation policy in addressing water scarcity in Iran and present a number of suggestions. Furthermore, our study analyze the impact of different government policies i.e., population growth to find how they influence water scarcity in Iran as the target study region, and one of the most water-stressed countries in the MENA region (Bozorg-Haddad et al., 2020).
Water scarcity in Iran is a complex social-ecological challenge (Ashraf et al., 2019), and various factors contribute to it differently, including agriculture, urbanization, climate change, population growth, land-use change, and an ineffective water management system (Madani, 2014). According to the Falkenmark water stress index, i.e., annual water availability per person, the water conditions in an area can be categorized as: no stress (>1700 m3 per capita), stress (1000–1700 m3 per capita), scarcity (500–1000 m3 per capita), and absolute scarcity (<500 m3 per capita) (Brown and Matlock, 2017). Therefore, Iran is suffering from water stress as per capita renewable water of 1560 cubic meters (Mirzaei et al., 2019). The water stress index in some regions of the country is significantly lower than the annual average of the country, and this is due to the prevalence of arid and semi-arid climate in Iran, characterized with low rainfall and high evaporation (Mehri et al., 2020). Moreover, the water stress index has been projected to experience a downward trend (Bazzi et al., 2021; Moridi, 2017). Dwindling surface water and runoffs that have been due to low precipitation and high evaporation rates (Zarghami et al., 2011), have increased pressure on other water resources in the country, e.g. groundwater, making Iran groundwater depletion status as alarming (Barati et al., 2019). Iran is the second largest groundwater miner, and 56 % of this water are consumed in agricultural sector to maintain food production and trade (Dalin et al., 2017), which has consequently caused severe land subsidence in major plains (Dehghani et al., 2013). Agricultural sector consumes the largest share of freshwater withdrawals in the country (92 %) (Barati et al., 2023a; Mesgaran et al., 2017) and has been one of the major causes of land-use change since the last 30 years (Moridi, 2017). Agricultural demand land use change has increased greenhouse gas emission, and this has caused significant changes in climatic parameters and hazards such as droughts, floods, storms (Azadi et al., 2022; Barati et al., 2023b), air humidity, temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. These changes have exacerbated climate change which, in turn, have reduced crop production (Karimi et al., 2018), influenced precipitation distribution (Abbaspour et al., 2009), increased irrigation water requirements (Ashofteh et al., 2011), reduced groundwater quality (Amiri et al., 2016), and caused extreme weather events in Iran (Alizadeh-Choobari and Najafi, 2018). Population growth is another key player in this complicated water crisis. Iran population has sharply increased in the latest decades, and this has increased water demand in various sectors (Madani, 2014), e.g. agricultural sector. Irrigated and rainfed agriculture production have expanded by 137 % and 59 %, respectively in recent decades to feed the higher population.
Considering the complex relationships that exist among various factors that cause water scarcity in Iran, as elaborated in previous paragraph, water scarcity needs to be analyzed in a holistic way. This would be the first step for an appropriate decision-making, as it represents the whole picture of the issue. Our study aims to develop a national scale model to analyze water scarcity and the effectiveness of some of adaptation policies in addressing water scarcity.
This study is significant at national level due to following novelties:
Water scarcity is one of the major challenges of this century which threatens the sustainability of social-ecological systems worldwide (UN-Water, 2021). Water scarcity is broadly defined as a situation when a regions' water supply does not meet its water demand (Karimi et al., 2018). This indicates that water scarcity is linked with the disrupted water supply-demand balance in a region (Gunasekara et al., 2014), and thus is strongly associated with both natural and human factors (Mishra et al., 2021). Recent changes in human societies such as population growth, improved welfare, land-use change, urbanization expansion, and agricultural development, together with some natural causes, e.g. climate change, have increased pressure on freshwater resources (Liang et al., 2020; Zhu et al., 2022). These changes have widened the gap between water supply and demand, rendering the World Economic Forum to rank water crisis as the most impactful crisis worldwide (World Economic Forum, 2019, World Economic Forum, 2020). Excessive pressure on the environment increase ecosystem degradation, and reduce available water provided by ecosystems. Based on the United Nations report, 2.3 billion people live in water-stressed countries (UN-Water, 2021), and this figure has been estimated to substantially increase by 2050 (IPCC, 2022; United Nation, 2022). Approximately 4 billion people experience water scarcity for at least one month per year, and about 500 million suffer from acute water scarcity for the whole year (Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2016). Projections have showed that the number of people in cities suffering from water scarcity would substantially increase from 955 million in 2016 to approximately 2 billion people by 2050 (He et al., 2021). It is also estimated that approximately 216 million people will be displaced as a result of water shortage by 2050 (United Nation, 2022). Conclusive evidence shows that water scarcity, if not dealt with adequately, would also hinder the achievement of almost all sustainable development goals (SDGs) (Stringer et al., 2021; Vanham et al., 2018).
During the “Anthropocene”, characterized by the devastating impacts of humans on natural ecosystems and the climate, water scarcity is increasingly spreading worldwide and becoming a common feature even in countries with the appropriate records of water supply such as European countries (Brunner et al., 2019; Garrote et al., 2018). In some regions of the world such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, water scarcity is a major challenge. The MENA region has considered the most water-stressed region worldwide, involving 12 out of 17 most water-stressed countries (Hofste et al., 2019). However, nexus approach which is essential to address water scarcity has not widely developed and practiced in countries of this region (Hoff et al., 2019). The multiplicity, complexity, and magnitude of factors that contribute to water scarcity in different countries in this region influence the most suitable adaptation policies that should be taken. In this regard, our study analyze the current and future status of water scarcity in Iran by developing a comprehensive WEFLC nexus model. The model quantifies the effects of each adaptation policy in addressing water scarcity in Iran and present a number of suggestions. Furthermore, our study analyze the impact of different government policies i.e., population growth to find how they influence water scarcity in Iran as the target study region, and one of the most water-stressed countries in the MENA region (Bozorg-Haddad et al., 2020).
Water scarcity in Iran is a complex social-ecological challenge (Ashraf et al., 2019), and various factors contribute to it differently, including agriculture, urbanization, climate change, population growth, land-use change, and an ineffective water management system (Madani, 2014). According to the Falkenmark water stress index, i.e., annual water availability per person, the water conditions in an area can be categorized as: no stress (>1700 m3 per capita), stress (1000–1700 m3 per capita), scarcity (500–1000 m3 per capita), and absolute scarcity (<500 m3 per capita) (Brown and Matlock, 2017). Therefore, Iran is suffering from water stress as per capita renewable water of 1560 cubic meters (Mirzaei et al., 2019). The water stress index in some regions of the country is significantly lower than the annual average of the country, and this is due to the prevalence of arid and semi-arid climate in Iran, characterized with low rainfall and high evaporation (Mehri et al., 2020). Moreover, the water stress index has been projected to experience a downward trend (Bazzi et al., 2021; Moridi, 2017). Dwindling surface water and runoffs that have been due to low precipitation and high evaporation rates (Zarghami et al., 2011), have increased pressure on other water resources in the country, e.g. groundwater, making Iran groundwater depletion status as alarming (Barati et al., 2019). Iran is the second largest groundwater miner, and 56 % of this water are consumed in agricultural sector to maintain food production and trade (Dalin et al., 2017), which has consequently caused severe land subsidence in major plains (Dehghani et al., 2013). Agricultural sector consumes the largest share of freshwater withdrawals in the country (92 %) (Barati et al., 2023a; Mesgaran et al., 2017) and has been one of the major causes of land-use change since the last 30 years (Moridi, 2017). Agricultural demand land use change has increased greenhouse gas emission, and this has caused significant changes in climatic parameters and hazards such as droughts, floods, storms (Azadi et al., 2022; Barati et al., 2023b), air humidity, temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. These changes have exacerbated climate change which, in turn, have reduced crop production (Karimi et al., 2018), influenced precipitation distribution (Abbaspour et al., 2009), increased irrigation water requirements (Ashofteh et al., 2011), reduced groundwater quality (Amiri et al., 2016), and caused extreme weather events in Iran (Alizadeh-Choobari and Najafi, 2018). Population growth is another key player in this complicated water crisis. Iran population has sharply increased in the latest decades, and this has increased water demand in various sectors (Madani, 2014), e.g. agricultural sector. Irrigated and rainfed agriculture production have expanded by 137 % and 59 %, respectively in recent decades to feed the higher population.
Considering the complex relationships that exist among various factors that cause water scarcity in Iran, as elaborated in previous paragraph, water scarcity needs to be analyzed in a holistic way. This would be the first step for an appropriate decision-making, as it represents the whole picture of the issue. Our study aims to develop a national scale model to analyze water scarcity and the effectiveness of some of adaptation policies in addressing water scarcity.
This study is significant at national level due to following novelties:
- I)
Adopting a WEFLC nexus model; our study considers the effects and feedback mechanisms of multiple social, economic, environmental, climatological, and hydrological factors on water scarcity in Iran. There is, however, a research gap for the study region, as most of studies have analyzed the effect of a limited number of influencing factors on water scarcity such as climate change and land-use change (Abbaspour et al., 2009; Rafiei-Sardooi et al., 2022). This will reduce the capability of the model for conducting the trade-off analysis over time (Giuliani et al., 2014), which is a crucial element in policy making (Zhou et al., 2017). - II)
Most of studies have analyzed water scarcity and stress at local scales; such as at river basins (Rafiei-Sardooi et al., 2022; Sharifi et al., 2021), at lakes (Bakhshianlamouki et al., 2020) and at province levels (Jafari Shalamzari and Zhang, 2018; Zoleikhaie Sayyar et al., 2022), however, there is no adequate quantitative knowledge on the present status of water scarcity in Iran in a national scale, and its future situation under different scenarios (Saemian et al., 2022). This could have been due to lack of access to widespread data from different disciplines, inadequate or poorly developed governance structures, and/or the complexity involved in applying nexus approaches. Analyzing a scope-limited area, such as a river basin, would result in presenting adaptation interventions that could not be applied in wider scales and across sectors, which is necessary for causing system-wide changes. - III)
This study contributes to the strategic planning of water sector. Considering the dynamic, non-linear and complex interaction of diverse sub-systems causing water scarcity, appropriate decision making requires understanding the whole picture. This study depicts the water scarcity system as a whole, involving multiple influencing sub-systems, their interconnections, their contributions to the crisis, and their dynamic under the changes made in different system elements over time. Some policy makers in the country believe that water scarcity is a natural and periodic phenomena which have simply been caused by a reduction in precipitation (Madani, 2014). This simplistic viewpoint has made the policy makers underestimate the severity of the water scarcity, and has caused delay in taking widespread, strict and timely mitigating measures. Our study presented some evidences on this matter and attempt to counterpart this simplistic understanding. The results also may be helpful as a decision support tool in order to assist decision makers to understand the possible outcomes of their policies.
Overall, the study tries to answer:
- 1) What is the current and future status of water scarcity in Iran?
- 2) Which system of the WEFLC nexus model has the gravest effect on water crisis in Iran?
- 3) How effective current adaptation strategies are in addressing the water scarcity issue?
- 4) What are the most appropriate adaptation strategies and policies to reduce water scarcity in Iran?
Water crisis in Iran: A system dynamics approach on water, energy, food, land and climate (WEFLC) nexus
Iran characters a relatively variable climate due to its vast area, abundant mountains, desert lands and adjacency to
Results
The results are presented in two sections. The first section shows the present status of water scarcity and its future condition in Iran if no measures will be taken. In the second section, three improvement scenarios and their importance in addressing the challenge are presented.
Study area
Iran is located in the geographical coordinates of 32° 25′ 14.67″ N latitude and 53° 40′ 58.86″ E longitude, with a total area of 1.648 million km2 (Modarres and Sarhadi, 2011). The land height is different between 28 m lower than the open seas at the southern coastal strip of the Caspian Sea and 5610 m at Damavand peak in the Alborz Mountains (Fig. 1) (Amiri and Eslamian, 2010).Iran characters a relatively variable climate due to its vast area, abundant mountains, desert lands and adjacency to
Results
The results are presented in two sections. The first section shows the present status of water scarcity and its future condition in Iran if no measures will be taken. In the second section, three improvement scenarios and their importance in addressing the challenge are presented.
The impact of climate change on water scarcity in Iran
According to this study, Iran precipitation, available water, renewable water and groundwater resources would continue to decline during the ensuing decades, and climate change is the major driver of water scarcity in Iran. This indicates that a further gap in water supply and demand, as a result of climate change, will be predictable, and that the water crisis will worsen over the following decades in Iran. These findings align with studies that have highlighted the intensification of theConclusions
Iran is now experiencing a complex and severe water scarcity and is expected to worsen in future and turn into water crisis. Our study attempted to investigate prospects to water crisis in Iran through a system approach. The study designed a SDM for the water crisis in Iran based on the interactions of major influencing sub-systems. The findings indicated that under the business as usual scenario, the water crisis in Iran will be exacerbated (the Falkenmark index will drop from 1251 to 422).CRediT authorship contribution statement
Ali Akbar Barati: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal analysis, Software, Writing- Reviewing and Editing, Supervision; Milad Dehghani Pour.: Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Resources, Formal analysis; Mohsen Adeli Sardooei: Data curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Validation.Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.References (96)
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WaterSaturday, January 10, 2026